Apartment completions to fall 25 per cent this year – report

A new report by the agency JLL said new measures to stimulate housing investment will take several years to filter into unit completions

Apartment construction in Dublin has been forecast to decline significantly this year, new research from JLL Ireland has said.

Last year, the number of new homes built fell by 6.7 per cent to 30,330 – far short of the government’s commitment to deliver 40,000 in the year.

The decline was caused by a significant fall in the number of new apartments built in the year, with completions of this home type down 24.1 per cent to 8,763.

A new report from JLL Ireland, the property agency, has forecast apartment completions in 2025 will be down 24.8 per cent compared to last year.

Based on that decline, it is estimated around 6,500 new apartments will be built in 2025.

In Dublin, the report added that new-build apartment completions are expected to be just below 5,000 this year.

In the years between 2026 and 2029, completions of apartments are forecast to fluctuate between 5,000 to 7,000 annually, the JLL research added.

The report, compiled by Niall Gargan, head of research at JLL, said the level of private sector investment into the residential sector in Ireland has declined significantly in recent years.

“The second half of 2023 was the quietest period for the sector since 2017”

“Following several years of rapid expansion in Ireland, the private rental sector slowed in 2023.

“The second half of 2023 was the quietest period for the sector since 2017.

“This slowdown continued into 2024, with volumes of €481 million, up 10.8 per cent from the previous year but down 56 per cent on the ten-year annual average.”

Gargan’s analysis added the decline in apartment completions is “multifaceted” with the regulatory environment in Ireland, including the country’s rental control rules and the cost of delivering apartments relative to end values two major contributors to the shortfall.

The report added if student accommodation investment transactions are not counted, the sector recorded a year-on-year decline of 42 per cent and 77 per cent decline on the ten-year annual average.

“Further, only 12 living deals were signed in 2024, down 56 per cent from the yearly ten-year average (eight deals if student accommodation is removed, down 63 per cent from the ten-year annual average).”